The Sports Report

A Statistical Take on Sports and Politics

Championship Week – Final

Here is my final listing of teams that have already punched their ticket to the NCAA tournaments, along with possible at-large selections on today, Selection Sunday. To find my definition of the “lower” and “upper” mid-major conferences, check out my article from last week breaking down the possible teams that could make the tournament:

Big Games to watch on Selection Sunday, March 15:

Lower Mid-Majors (semifinals or championship)
Southland Championship
@ Katy, TX – #6 Texas San Antonio vs. #1 Stephen F. Austin
Game 7: No. 6 Texas San Antonio vs. No. 1 Stephen F. Austin, ESPN2, 1 p.m.

Majors (all games)
ACC Championship
@ Atlanta, GA – #4 Florida State vs. #3 Duke
Game 11: No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 3 Duke, ESPN, 1 p.m.

Big Ten Championship @ Indianapolis, IN – #5 Ohio State vs. #3 Purdue
Game 10: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Purdue, 3:30 p.m.

SEC Championship @ Tampa, FL – West #3 Mississippi State vs. East #1 Tennessee
Game 11: W3 Mississippi State vs. E1 Tennessee, 1 p.m.


Champions (30 automatic bids before Big Ten Championship):

Louisville (28-5, 16-2 Big East, RPI 4) – Estimated Seed 1
Memphis (31-3, 16-0 C-USA, RPI 7) – Estimated Seed 1-2
Duke (28-6. 11-5 ACC, RPI 1) – Estimated Seed 2
Missouri (28-6, 12-4 Big 12, RPI 11) – Estimated Seed 3
Gonzaga (26-5, 14-0 West Coast, RPI 27) – Estimated Seed 4-5
Utah (24-9, 12-6 Mountain West, RPI 10) – Estimated Seed 6-8
Siena (26-7, 16-2 MAAC, RPI 18) – Estimated Seed 9-11
Southern Cal (21-12, 9-9 Pac-10, RPI 38) – Estimated Seed 9-11
Utah State (30-4, 14-2 WAC, RPI 23) – Estimated Seed 10-12
Temple (22-11, 11-5 Atlantic-10, RPI 31) – Estimated Seed 10-12
Northern Iowa (23-10, 14-4 Missouri Valley, RPI 56) – Estimated Seed 12-13
Western Kentucky (24-8, 15-3 Sun Belt, RPI 44) – Estimated Seed 12-13
Virginia Commonwealth (24-9, 14-4 Colonial, RPI 49) – Estimated Seed 12-13
Cleveland State (25-10, 12-6 Horizon, RPI 52) – Estimated Seed 12-13
Mississippi State (23-12, 9-7 SEC, RPI 59) – Estimated Seed 11-12
American (24-7, 13-1 Patriot League, RPI 71) – Estimated Seed 13-14
Stephen F. Austin (24-7, 13-3 Southland, RPI 74) – Estimated Seed 13-14
North Dakota State (26-6, 16-2 Summit, RPI 86) – Estimated Seed 13-14
Akron (23-12, 10-6 MAC, RPI 99) – Estimated Seed 13-14
Binghamton (23-8, 13-3, America East, RPI 88) – Estimated Seed 14
Portland State (23-9, 11-5 Big Sky, RPI 112) – Estimated Seed 14-15
East Tennessee State (23-10, 14-6 Atlantic Sun, RPI 117) – Estimated Seed 14-15
Robert Morris (24-10, 15-3 Northeast, RPI 108) – Estimated Seed 15
Cornell (21-9, 11-3 Ivy League, RPI 115) – Estimated Seed 15
Radford (21-11, 15-3 Big South, RPI 131) – Estimated Seed 15
Morgan State (23-11, 13-3 MEAC, RPI 130) – Estimated Seed 16
CS Northridge (16-13, 11-5 Big West, RPI 127) – Estimated Seed 16
Morehead State (19-15, 12-6 Ohio Valley, RPI 142) – Estimated Seed 16
Chattanooga (18-16, 11-9 Southern, RPI 175) – Estimated Seed 16
Alabama State (22-9, 16-2 SWAC, RPI 178) – Estimated Seed 16

Big Ten #3 Purdue (currently 24-9, 11-7, RPI 25) – Estimated Seed 5
Big Ten #5 Ohio State (currently 22-9, 10-8, RPI 26) – Estimated Seed 7-8

Eliminated Teams:

Lower Mid-Majors (all #1-2’s, sorted by RPI): zero NCAA chances, five NIT automatic bids
MAAC #2 Niagara (26-8, 14-4, RPI 50) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Colonial #2 George Mason (22-10, 13-5, RPI 51) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Southern South #1 Davidson (26-7, 18-2, RPI 69) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Sun Belt #2 Arkansas-Little Rock (23-8, 15-3, RPI 92) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
America East #2 Vermont (23-8, 13-3, RPI 95) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Big Sky #1 Weber State (21-9, 15-1, RPI 107) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Northeast #2 Mount St. Mary’s (19-13, 12-6, RPI 118) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Big South #2 VMI (24-8, 13-5, RPI 128) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Ohio Valley #1 Tennessee-Martin (22-9, 14-4, RPI 141) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Summit #2 Oral Roberts (16-15, 14-4, RPI 143) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Ohio Valley #2 Austin Peay (19-13, 13-5, RPI 144) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Atlantic Sun #1 Jacksonville (18-13, 15-5, RPI 149) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Big West #2 Long Beach State (19-11, 10-6, RPI 154) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
MAC #1 Bowling Green (19-13, 11-5, RPI 156) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Southland #2 Nicholls State (20-11, 12-4, RPI 155) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Patriot League #2 Holy Cross (18-14, 11-3, RPI 169) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Southern South #2 The Citadel (20-12, 15-5, RPI 174) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
SWAC #2 Jackson State (18-15, 15-3, RPI 180) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
MEAC #2 South Carolina State (17-14, 10-6, RPI 257) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
MAC #2 Ball State (14-17, 7-9, RPI 262) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Upper Mid-Majors (all #1-4’s, sorted by RPI): four locks, three bubble teams
Atlantic-10 #1 Xavier (25-7, 12-4, RPI 17) – 100% chance of being at-large
Horizon #1 Butler (26-5, 15-3, RPI 22) – 100% chance of being at-large
Atlantic-10 #3 Dayton (26-7, 11-5, RPI 28) – 100% chance of being at-large
Mountain West #1 Brigham Young (25-7, 12-4, RPI 30) – 100% percent chance of being at-large
Mountain West #4 San Diego State (23-9, 11-5, RPI 34) – 40% chance of being at-large
Missouri Valley #2 Creighton (26-7, 14-4, RPI 40) – 75% chance of being at-large

C-USA #3 UAB (22-11, 11-5, RPI 46) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Missouri Valley #3 Illinois State (24-9, 11-7, RPI 47) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
West Coast #2 St. Mary’s (26-6, 10-4, RPI 48) – 40% chance of being at-large

C-USA #2 Tulsa (24-10, 12-4, RPI 53) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Mountain West #3 New Mexico (21-11, 12-4, RPI 66) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Atlantic-10 #2 Rhode Island (22-10, 11-5, RPI 68) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Horizon #2 Green Bay (22-10, 13-5, RPI 72) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
WAC #2 Nevada (21-12, 11-5, RPI 81) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Conference-USA #4 UTEP (19-12, 10-6, RPI 84) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Horizon #4 Wright State (20-13, 12-6, RPI 96) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Missouri Valley #4 Bradley (18-14, 10-8, RPI 98) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
WAC #4 Boise State (19-12, 9-7, RPI 110) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
West Coast #3 Portland (19-11, 9-5, RPI 120) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
WAC #3 Idaho (16-14, 9-7, RPI 135) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
West Coast #4 Santa Clara (16-17, 7-7, RPI 198) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Majors (all #1-8’s, sorted by RPI): 23 locks, 6 bubble teams
Big East #2 Pittsburgh (28-4, 15-3, RPI 2) – 100% chance of being at-large
ACC #1 North Carolina (28-4, 13-3, RPI 3) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #1 Michigan State (26-6, 15-3, Big Ten, RPI 5) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big 12 #2 Oklahoma (27-5, 13-3, RPI 6) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big East #3 Connecticut (27-4, 15-3, RPI 8) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big 12 #1 Kansas (25-7, 14-2, RPI 9) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big East #6 Syracuse (26-9, 11-7, RPI 12) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big East #4 Villanova (26-6, 13-5, RPI 13) – 100% chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #1 Washington (25-8, 14-4, RPI 14) – 100% chance of being at-large
ACC #4 Florida State (25-9, 10-6, RPI 15) – 100% chance of being at-large
ACC #2 Wake Forest (24-6, 11-5, RPI 16) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big 12 #7 Oklahoma State (22-11, 9-7, RPI 19) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big East #7 West Virginia (23-11, 10-8, RPI 20) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #2 Illinois (24-9, 11-7, RPI 21) – 100% chance of being at-large
SEC East #1 Tennessee (21-12, 10-6, RPI 24) – 100% chance of being at-large
ACC #5 Clemson (23-8, 9-7, RPI 29) – 100% chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #4 Arizona State (24-9, 11-7, RPI 32) – 100% chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #2 UCLA (25-8, 13-5, RPI 33) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big East #5 Marquette (24-9, 12-6, RPI 35) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big 12 #6 Texas A&M (23-8, 9-7, RPI 36) – 100% chance of being at-large
SEC West #1 LSU (26-7, 13-3, RPI 37) – 100% chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #3 California (22-10, 11-7, RPI 39) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big 12 #5 Texas (22-11, 9-7, RPI 41) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #8 Minnesota (22-9, 9-9, RPI 42) – 40% chance of being at-large

Big Ten #7 Michigan (20-13, 9-9, RPI 43) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #4 Wisconsin (19-12, 10-8, RPI 45) – 95% chance of being at-large
ACC #7 Maryland (22-11, 10-6, RPI 54) – 85% chance of being at-large

SEC East #3 Florida (23-10, 9-7, RPI 55) – Zero percent of being at-large
SEC East #2 South Carolina (12-9, 10-6, RPI 58) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
ACC #6 Boston College (22-11, 9-7, RPI 60) – 100% chance of being at-large
ACC #8 Virginia Tech (18-14, 7-9, RPI 62) – Zero percent of being at-large
Pac-10 #5 Arizona (19-13, 9-9, RPI 63) – 10% chance of being at-large
SEC West #2 Auburn (22-11, 10-6, RPI 64) – 30% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #6 Penn State (22-11, 10-8, RPI 70) – 10% chance of being at-large

Big East #8 Providence (19-13, 10-8, RPI 73) – Zero percent of being at-large
Big 12 #8 Nebraska (18-12, 8-8, RPI 76) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
SEC East #4 Kentucky (20-13, 8-8, RPI 79) – Zero chance of being at-large
Big 12 #4 Kansas State (21-11, 9-7, RPI 80) – Zero chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #7 Washington State (17-15, 8-10, RPI 91) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
SEC West #4 Alabama (18-14, 7-9, RPI 109) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #8 Oregon State (13-17, 7-11, RPI 156) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Tournament Selection Breakdown:

Lower Mid-Majors
America
East: Binghamton
Atlantic Sun
: East Tennessee State
Big Sky
: Portland State
Big South
: Radford
Big
West: Cal State Northridge
Colonial
: Virginia Commonwealth
Ivy
League: Cornell
MAAC
: Siena
MAC
: Akron
MEAC
: Morgan State
Northeast
: Robert Morris
Ohio
Valley: Morehead State
Patriot
League: American
Southern
: Chattanooga
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Summit: North Dakota State
Sun
Belt: Western Kentucky
SWAC
: Alabama State

Only the champions will be in among the lower mid-majors, meaning there are now 18 automatic bids in the tournament.

Upper Mid-Majors
Atlantic-10
: Temple
C-USA
: Memphis
Horizon
: Cleveland State
Missouri
Valley: Northern Iowa
Mountain
West: Utah
WAC
: Utah State
West
Coast: Gonzaga

Along with these seven automatic bids, you can also expect Butler, Xavier, Dayton, and Brigham Young to be included in the tournament. That means upper mid-majors should have at least four at-large bids and the bubble breakdown is below.

Majors
ACC
: Duke
Big
East: Louisville
Big
Ten: Ohio State vs. Purdue
Big
12: Missouri
Pac-10
: Southern Cal
SEC
: Mississippi State

Along with these final six automatic bids, you can also expect the 26 at-large teams below to be in the tournament no matter what (only eliminated teams).

ACC: Wake Forest, Clemson, Boston College, North Carolina, and Florida State
Big
East: Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, and Syracuse
Big Ten
: Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, plus the loser of Ohio State and Purdue
Big
12: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State
Pac-10
: Washington, UCLA, California, and Arizona State
SEC
: LSU, and Tennessee

The total number of automatic bids and at-large teams thus far in the tournament are 61. Here are the bubble teams that will be in contention for the final four to five spots in the tournament:

Big Ten #4 Wisconsin (19-12, 10-8, RPI 45) – 95% chance of being at-large
ACC #7 Maryland (22-11, 10-6, RPI 54) – 85% chance of being at-large
Missouri Valley #2 Creighton (26-7, 14-4, RPI 40) – 75% chance of being at-large
Mountain West #4 San Diego State (23-9, 11-5, RPI 34) – 40% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #8 Minnesota (22-9, 9-9, RPI 42) – 40% chance of being at-large
West Coast #2 St. Mary’s (26-6, 10-4, RPI 48) – 40% chance of being at-large
SEC West #2 Auburn (22-11, 10-6, RPI 64) – 30% chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #5 Arizona (19-13, 9-9, RPI 63) – 10% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #6 Penn State (22-11, 10-8, RPI 70) – 10% chance of being at-large

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March 15, 2009 - Posted by | College Basketball, Dayton Flyers | ,

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