The Sports Report

A Statistical Take on Sports and Politics

Championship Week

I will be updating this page every single day from now until Selection Sunday on Sunday, March 15. It will include the big games to watch today in all of the different conferences, along with listings of teams that have already punched their ticket to the NCAA tournaments, along with possible at-large selections. To find my definition of the “lower” and “upper” mid-major conferences, check out my article from last week breaking down the possible teams that could make the NCAA Tournament:

Big Games to watch on Selection Sunday, March 15:

Lower Mid-Majors (semifinals or championship)
Southland Championship
@ Katy, TX – #6 Texas San Antonio vs. #1 Stephen F. Austin
Game 7: No. 6 Texas San Antonio vs. No. 1 Stephen F. Austin, ESPN2, 1 p.m.

Majors (all games)
ACC Championship
@ Atlanta, GA – #4 Florida State vs. #3 Duke
Game 11: No. 4 Florida State vs. No. 3 Duke, ESPN, 1 p.m.

Big Ten Championship @ Indianapolis, IN – #5 Ohio State vs. #3 Purdue
Game 10: No. 5 Ohio State vs. No. 3 Purdue, 3:30 p.m.

SEC Championship @ Tampa, FL – West #3 Mississippi State vs. East #1 Tennessee
Game 11: W3 Mississippi State vs. E1 Tennessee, 1 p.m.

Champions (30 automatic bids before Big Ten Championship):

Louisville (28-5, 16-2 Big East, RPI 4) – Estimated Seed 1
Memphis (31-3, 16-0 C-USA, RPI 7) – Estimated Seed 1-2
Duke (28-6. 11-5 ACC, RPI 1) – Estimated Seed 2
Missouri (28-6, 12-4 Big 12, RPI 11) – Estimated Seed 3
Gonzaga (26-5, 14-0 West Coast, RPI 27) – Estimated Seed 4-5
Utah (24-9, 12-6 Mountain West, RPI 10) – Estimated Seed 6-8
Siena (26-7, 16-2 MAAC, RPI 18) – Estimated Seed 9-11
Southern Cal (21-12, 9-9 Pac-10, RPI 38) – Estimated Seed 9-11
Utah State (30-4, 14-2 WAC, RPI 23) – Estimated Seed 10-12
Temple (22-11, 11-5 Atlantic-10, RPI 31) – Estimated Seed 10-12
Northern Iowa (23-10, 14-4 Missouri Valley, RPI 56) – Estimated Seed 12-13
Western Kentucky (24-8, 15-3 Sun Belt, RPI 44) – Estimated Seed 12-13
Virginia Commonwealth (24-9, 14-4 Colonial, RPI 49) – Estimated Seed 12-13
Cleveland State (25-10, 12-6 Horizon, RPI 52) – Estimated Seed 12-13
Mississippi State (23-12, 9-7 SEC, RPI 59) – Estimated Seed 11-12
American (24-7, 13-1 Patriot League, RPI 71) – Estimated Seed 13-14
Stephen F. Austin (24-7, 13-3 Southland, RPI 74) – Estimated Seed 13-14
North Dakota State (26-6, 16-2 Summit, RPI 86) – Estimated Seed 13-14
Akron (23-12, 10-6 MAC, RPI 99) – Estimated Seed 13-14
Binghamton (23-8, 13-3, America East, RPI 88) – Estimated Seed 14
Portland State (23-9, 11-5 Big Sky, RPI 112) – Estimated Seed 14-15
East Tennessee State (23-10, 14-6 Atlantic Sun, RPI 117) – Estimated Seed 14-15
Robert Morris (24-10, 15-3 Northeast, RPI 108) – Estimated Seed 15
Cornell (21-9, 11-3 Ivy League, RPI 115) – Estimated Seed 15
Radford (21-11, 15-3 Big South, RPI 131) – Estimated Seed 15
Morgan State (23-11, 13-3 MEAC, RPI 130) – Estimated Seed 16
CS Northridge (16-13, 11-5 Big West, RPI 127) – Estimated Seed 16
Morehead State (19-15, 12-6 Ohio Valley, RPI 142) – Estimated Seed 16
Chattanooga (18-16, 11-9 Southern, RPI 175) – Estimated Seed 16
Alabama State (22-9, 16-2 SWAC, RPI 178) – Estimated Seed 16

Big Ten #3 Purdue (currently 24-9, 11-7, RPI 25) – Estimated Seed 5
Big Ten #5 Ohio State (currently 22-9, 10-8, RPI 26) – Estimated Seed 7-8

Eliminated Teams:

Lower Mid-Majors (all #1-2’s, sorted by RPI): zero NCAA chances, five NIT automatic bids
MAAC #2 Niagara (26-8, 14-4, RPI 50) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Colonial #2 George Mason (22-10, 13-5, RPI 51) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Southern South #1 Davidson (26-7, 18-2, RPI 69) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Sun Belt #2 Arkansas-Little Rock (23-8, 15-3, RPI 92) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
America East #2 Vermont (23-8, 13-3, RPI 95) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Big Sky #1 Weber State (21-9, 15-1, RPI 107) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Northeast #2 Mount St. Mary’s (19-13, 12-6, RPI 118) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Big South #2 VMI (24-8, 13-5, RPI 128) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Ohio Valley #1 Tennessee-Martin (22-9, 14-4, RPI 141) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Summit #2 Oral Roberts (16-15, 14-4, RPI 143) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Ohio Valley #2 Austin Peay (19-13, 13-5, RPI 144) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Atlantic Sun #1 Jacksonville (18-13, 15-5, RPI 149) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Big West #2 Long Beach State (19-11, 10-6, RPI 154) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
MAC #1 Bowling Green (19-13, 11-5, RPI 156) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Southland #2 Nicholls State (20-11, 12-4, RPI 155) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Patriot League #2 Holy Cross (18-14, 11-3, RPI 169) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Southern South #2 The Citadel (20-12, 15-5, RPI 174) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
SWAC #2 Jackson State (18-15, 15-3, RPI 180) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
MEAC #2 South Carolina State (17-14, 10-6, RPI 257) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
MAC #2 Ball State (14-17, 7-9, RPI 262) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Upper Mid-Majors (all #1-4’s, sorted by RPI): four locks, three bubble teams
Atlantic-10 #1 Xavier (25-7, 12-4, RPI 17) – 100% chance of being at-large
Horizon #1 Butler (26-5, 15-3, RPI 22) – 100% chance of being at-large
Atlantic-10 #3 Dayton (26-7, 11-5, RPI 28) – 100% chance of being at-large
Mountain West #1 Brigham Young (25-7, 12-4, RPI 30) – 100% percent chance of being at-large
Mountain West #4 San Diego State (23-9, 11-5, RPI 34) – 40% chance of being at-large
Missouri Valley #2 Creighton (26-7, 14-4, RPI 40) – 75% chance of being at-large

C-USA #3 UAB (22-11, 11-5, RPI 46) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Missouri Valley #3 Illinois State (24-9, 11-7, RPI 47) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
West Coast #2 St. Mary’s (26-6, 10-4, RPI 48) – 40% chance of being at-large

C-USA #2 Tulsa (24-10, 12-4, RPI 53) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Mountain West #3 New Mexico (21-11, 12-4, RPI 66) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Atlantic-10 #2 Rhode Island (22-10, 11-5, RPI 68) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Horizon #2 Green Bay (22-10, 13-5, RPI 72) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
WAC #2 Nevada (21-12, 11-5, RPI 81) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Conference-USA #4 UTEP (19-12, 10-6, RPI 84) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Horizon #4 Wright State (20-13, 12-6, RPI 96) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Missouri Valley #4 Bradley (18-14, 10-8, RPI 98) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
WAC #4 Boise State (19-12, 9-7, RPI 110) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
West Coast #3 Portland (19-11, 9-5, RPI 120) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
WAC #3 Idaho (16-14, 9-7, RPI 135) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
West Coast #4 Santa Clara (16-17, 7-7, RPI 198) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Majors (all #1-8’s, sorted by RPI): 23 locks, 6 bubble teams
Big East #2 Pittsburgh (28-4, 15-3, RPI 2) – 100% chance of being at-large
ACC #1 North Carolina (28-4, 13-3, RPI 3) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #1 Michigan State (26-6, 15-3, Big Ten, RPI 5) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big 12 #2 Oklahoma (27-5, 13-3, RPI 6) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big East #3 Connecticut (27-4, 15-3, RPI 8) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big 12 #1 Kansas (25-7, 14-2, RPI 9) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big East #6 Syracuse (26-9, 11-7, RPI 12) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big East #4 Villanova (26-6, 13-5, RPI 13) – 100% chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #1 Washington (25-8, 14-4, RPI 14) – 100% chance of being at-large
ACC #4 Florida State (25-9, 10-6, RPI 15) – 100% chance of being at-large
ACC #2 Wake Forest (24-6, 11-5, RPI 16) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big 12 #7 Oklahoma State (22-11, 9-7, RPI 19) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big East #7 West Virginia (23-11, 10-8, RPI 20) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #2 Illinois (24-9, 11-7, RPI 21) – 100% chance of being at-large
SEC East #1 Tennessee (21-12, 10-6, RPI 24) – 100% chance of being at-large
ACC #5 Clemson (23-8, 9-7, RPI 29) – 100% chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #4 Arizona State (24-9, 11-7, RPI 32) – 100% chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #2 UCLA (25-8, 13-5, RPI 33) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big East #5 Marquette (24-9, 12-6, RPI 35) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big 12 #6 Texas A&M (23-8, 9-7, RPI 36) – 100% chance of being at-large
SEC West #1 LSU (26-7, 13-3, RPI 37) – 100% chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #3 California (22-10, 11-7, RPI 39) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big 12 #5 Texas (22-11, 9-7, RPI 41) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #8 Minnesota (22-9, 9-9, RPI 42) – 40% chance of being at-large

Big Ten #7 Michigan (20-13, 9-9, RPI 43) – 100% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #4 Wisconsin (19-12, 10-8, RPI 45) – 95% chance of being at-large
ACC #7 Maryland (22-11, 10-6, RPI 54) – 85% chance of being at-large

SEC East #3 Florida (23-10, 9-7, RPI 55) – Zero percent of being at-large
SEC East #2 South Carolina (12-9, 10-6, RPI 58) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
ACC #6 Boston College (22-11, 9-7, RPI 60) – 100% chance of being at-large
ACC #8 Virginia Tech (18-14, 7-9, RPI 62) – Zero percent of being at-large
Pac-10 #5 Arizona (19-13, 9-9, RPI 63) – 10% chance of being at-large
SEC West #2 Auburn (22-11, 10-6, RPI 64) – 30% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #6 Penn State (22-11, 10-8, RPI 70) – 10% chance of being at-large

Big East #8 Providence (19-13, 10-8, RPI 73) – Zero percent of being at-large
Big 12 #8 Nebraska (18-12, 8-8, RPI 76) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
SEC East #4 Kentucky (20-13, 8-8, RPI 79) – Zero chance of being at-large
Big 12 #4 Kansas State (21-11, 9-7, RPI 80) – Zero chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #7 Washington State (17-15, 8-10, RPI 91) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
SEC West #4 Alabama (18-14, 7-9, RPI 109) – Zero percent chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #8 Oregon State (13-17, 7-11, RPI 156) – Zero percent chance of being at-large

Tournament Selection Breakdown:

Lower Mid-Majors
America
East: Binghamton
Atlantic Sun
: East Tennessee State
Big Sky
: Portland State
Big South
: Radford
Big
West: Cal State Northridge
Colonial
: Virginia Commonwealth
Ivy
League: Cornell
MAAC
: Siena
MAC
: Akron
MEAC
: Morgan State
Northeast
: Robert Morris
Ohio
Valley: Morehead State
Patriot
League: American
Southern
: Chattanooga
Southland: Stephen F. Austin
Summit: North Dakota State
Sun
Belt: Western Kentucky
SWAC
: Alabama State

Only the champions will be in among the lower mid-majors, meaning there are now 18 automatic bids in the tournament.

Upper Mid-Majors
Atlantic-10
: Temple
C-USA
: Memphis
Horizon
: Cleveland State
Missouri
Valley: Northern Iowa
Mountain
West: Utah
WAC
: Utah State
West
Coast: Gonzaga

Along with these seven automatic bids, you can also expect Butler, Xavier, Dayton, and Brigham Young to be included in the tournament. That means upper mid-majors should have at least four at-large bids and the bubble breakdown is below.

Majors
ACC
: Duke
Big
East: Louisville
Big
Ten: Ohio State vs. Purdue
Big
12: Missouri
Pac-10
: Southern Cal
SEC
: Mississippi State

Along with these final six automatic bids, you can also expect the 26 at-large teams below to be in the tournament no matter what (only eliminated teams).

ACC: Wake Forest, Clemson, Boston College, North Carolina, and Florida State
Big
East: Pittsburgh, Connecticut, Villanova, Marquette, West Virginia, and Syracuse
Big Ten
: Michigan State, Illinois, Michigan, plus the loser of Ohio State and Purdue
Big
12: Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M and Oklahoma State
Pac-10
: Washington, UCLA, California, and Arizona State
SEC
: LSU, and Tennessee

The total number of automatic bids and at-large teams thus far in the tournament are 61. Here are the bubble teams that will be in contention for the final four to five spots in the tournament:

Big Ten #4 Wisconsin (19-12, 10-8, RPI 45) – 95% chance of being at-large
ACC #7 Maryland (22-11, 10-6, RPI 54) – 85% chance of being at-large
Missouri Valley #2 Creighton (26-7, 14-4, RPI 40) – 75% chance of being at-large
Mountain West #4 San Diego State (23-9, 11-5, RPI 34) – 40% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #8 Minnesota (22-9, 9-9, RPI 42) – 40% chance of being at-large
West Coast #2 St. Mary’s (26-6, 10-4, RPI 48) – 40% chance of being at-large
SEC West #2 Auburn (22-11, 10-6, RPI 64) – 30% chance of being at-large
Pac-10 #5 Arizona (19-13, 9-9, RPI 63) – 10% chance of being at-large
Big Ten #6 Penn State (22-11, 10-8, RPI 70) – 10% chance of being at-large

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