The Sports Report

A Statistical Take on Sports and Politics

NBA Mock Draft 04-24-09

The NBA Draft is one of my favorite events of the entire calendar year, and although it is still about two months away, I am more excited than ever. A few weeks back I posted up my thoughts on the first lottery picks in the draft with their recent averages from several sites. This week, using what I have learned from other major sites, I will make my first-ever lottery mock draft. I hope you enjoy!

Note: I apologize but this is an incorrect and out-dated draft order from April 1, 2008 when I made my first look at the draft. I hope to do another mock draft just before the lottery sometime next month, and I apologize for the inconvenience.

#1 Sacramento – Blake Griffin, PF, Oklahoma: The Kings need a little bit of everything right now. The only two pieces of their future they have locked up are Kevin Martin and Spencer Hawes, and Griffin is the most sure-thing to come to the NBA in a couple of years. He will be an immediate force, and a perennial All-Star. Jason Thompson was not a smart pick at their spot last season, but Griffin should compensate for that selection by bringing in a dominant presence in the paint. He is smart, humble, and a fierce competitor, and I have a good feeling that with his help, the Kings will not win the Lottery next year.

#2 Washington – Jordan Hill, PF, Arizona: Washington is bringing Flip Saunders to coach up this team in 2009, fresh off a miserable past 2008 season. Gilbert Arenas is still the future, and their goal this off-season should be to develop the youngsters they have, and find a long-term replacement for Antawn Jamison. Hill fits the bill, and although Rubio will be better in the end, he is a solid pick here. With Jamison, Butler, Arenas and Hill, along with healthy contribution from Brendan Haywood, I think Washington should be in the giant mix of competitive Eastern Conference teams next season. Their prime winning seasons are over, but anything less than 30 wins next season should be considered yet another disappointment.

#3 LA Clippers – Ricky Rubio, PG, Spain: Rubio will not fall past the third pick in the Draft no matter what, and could possibly be the first pick if Sacramento does not feel comfortable with Beno Udrih for the next couple years. The Clippers need a go-to player and Rubio should help to make Baron Davis feel a little more pressured next season. A great position for the young Spaniard, as he will be surrounded by a solid supporting cast. Davis struggled this past season with injuries and because of a lack of team focus. Al Thornton and Chris Kaman are the two other strong players for the future, but Rubio, just like Griffin, gives the Clippers a face of the franchise for many years to come.

Continue reading

April 24, 2009 Posted by | NBA Draft | , , , , | 8 Comments

Lakers and Cavs: The Numbers

For more information on this post, please visit http://www.waitingfornextyear.com/?p=10237 to see the explanation behind the numbers. This post serves as a explanation for my conclusion and my entire argument over at WFNY.

These numbers are broken down into four sections, diving into the strength of schedule of the Los Angeles Lakers and the Cleveland Cavaliers. Section 1 breaks down the win-loss record among simple win distribution, and also includes the average differential. Section 2 then goes a step further, breaking down the types of teams that lost to the Lakers, Cavs, both or neither, and analyzing what that shows about the two squads. Next, Section 3 is a new process I created of standardizing the schedules where I looked to show what their win-loss records would be if they only played every single team in the NBA at home one, and on the road once. To top it all off, Section 4 breaks down the win-loss records and differentials of the two teams against playoff and lottery teams in the two conferences.

Section 1: Win-Loss Records

Against common teams with 50+ wins

Lakers 16-6 with diff of +5.77, Cavaliers 12-5 with diff of +5.94

Continue reading

April 17, 2009 Posted by | The Boots | , , , , | 3 Comments

The Boots (March 25, 2009)

Boot Up: Connecticut Huskies – The Connecticut Huskies came into this year’s NCAA Tournament as the least likely #1 seed to win the national championship at only 7.07%. Through two games in the tournament, the Huskies without starting junior guard Jerome Dyson and even without Coach Jim Calhoun for one game, managed to erase many of those previous doubts. In the regular season, the Huskies were clearly dominant and one of the best teams in the country, but disappointing big game losses at home against Georgetown and Pittsburgh, in Pittsburgh and in the Big East conference tournament against Syracuse gave Louisville the #1 overall seed in the tournament and in the conference overall. These disappointing affairs and the recent injury of Dyson combined to give the Huskies an only 61.48% chance of even making the Sweet 16.

What a difference a week makes, however, and with their two dominant wins over Chattanooga and Texas A&M, the Huskies are playing some of the best basketball in the nation. Their 36-point margin of victory over the #9 seeded Aggies in the second round was by far and away the biggest margin of victory on either Saturday or Sunday, with Villanova’s 20-point win over UCLA coming in second place. In addition, in their victory over the #16 seed Southern Conference champion Chattanooga Mocs, the Huskies went on a mind-blowing fourteen and a half minute, 46-5 run after a relatively slow start to the game. In post-season play, including their loss to Syracuse, they are averaging a victory of the margin of 84.67 to 64.00 per forty minutes of play.

One huge reason why Connecticut is doing so much better recently is the improved all-around play of junior forward Stanley Robinson since the loss of Dyson. Before Dyson’s injury, for the entire season the 6-9 Robinson was averaging 13.40 points and 9.16 rebounds per 40 minutes of play and received 19.63 minutes of playing time per game. In his last nine games, Robinson is now average 16.00 points and 10.71 rebounds per 40 minutes of play and received 31.11 minutes of playing time per game. The Huskies already have three potential NBA players in 7-3 junior center Hasheem Thabeet, 6-7 senior forward Jeff Adrien and 6-2 senior guard A.J. Price, and the emergence of Robinson has made them a very, very dangerous team. Their odds of winning the championship are now 10.34%, making them a more likely national champion than the much more popular picks of Pittsburgh and North Carolina.

Boot Up: Cleveland Cavaliers in the East – Do you remember Christmas Day 2008? Hard to imagine that it was already three months ago already, but this day will go down in history for a very special reason in the NBA. With a constant year and a half stranglehold on the entire NBA, the 27-2 Boston Celtics came into the Staples Center in Los Angeles to take on the 23-5 Lakers. Meanwhile in Cleveland, the 24-4 Cavaliers had the extreme pleasure of hosting their former rivals, the 4-22 Washington Wizards. As the story goes, the Lakers hold on to beat the Celtics by nine, the Cavaliers survive an incredibly ugly game to win by four, and the season continues unsuspectingly. Shockingly and pretty much without warning, the Boston Celtics began their downfall on this very day, and including this loss in Los Angeles are now an unimpressive 27-16 in their last 43 games.

Continue reading

March 25, 2009 Posted by | The Boots | , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Boots (March 4, 2009)

Boot Up: Here comes Joe Smith – After weeks upon weeks of rumors, it appears that forward Joe Smith is finally coming to the Cleveland Cavaliers. The 6-foot-10 former first round pick out of the University of Maryland signed with the Cavaliers Wednesday morning, and will be able to play in the big game in Boston on Friday night. While many different blogs and reporters across the Northeast Ohio area have praised the return of Smith, a steady 33-year-old veteran presence in the locker room, I warn them of thinking too much about the fourteen-year NBA pro.

Sure, the Cavaliers have had problems defending the paint against teams such as the Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat this season, but they are still #7 in the NBA in points in the paint allowed per game. The Cavaliers are only #23 in the league in points scored in the paint per game, according to TeamRankings.com, but that sort of happens when you have two top perimeter guards starting every single game. An odd fact, however, is that the Cavaliers have the #13 best points in the paint differential at home, while they are #20 on the road. This relates to an article I wrote recently on how LeBron James tends to be more productive at home, as he usually looks to drive it to the basket more often than not.

Joe Smith will continue to be a decent player, as he has averaged at least 17.36 points and 9.65 rebounds per 48 minutes in every single season of his career. Last season, in which he spent his final 27 regular season games with the Cavaliers, was one of his finest of his career on a per-minute basis. He averaged 21.64 points and 11.15 rebounds per 48 minutes, and advanced past the first round of the playoffs for the first time in his career. He is not by any means a legitimate starting post presence for one of the best teams in the NBA, but he is a very good fit for the team for the remainder of this season. I will certainly cheer for him to do well in Cleveland, but I do not think this automatically makes us the favorites, nor does it make us a very different ball club.

Continue reading

March 4, 2009 Posted by | The Boots | , , , , , , | 3 Comments

The Boots (February 10, 2009)

Boot Up: The Phenomenon of Lamar Odom – I am sorry to bring up this sore subject fellow Cleveland fans, but I was actually planning on writing an article about the 30-year-old Odom days and even weeks before he blew up for 28-points and 17-rebounds in the Lakers victory in Cleveland on Sunday. The main reason for this potential article was that I saw a mention on ESPN recently, that Odom is a free agent and it seems like the Los Angeles Lakers are already thinking about moving on without him. Here are the exact words from Chad Ford:

“Odom will be one of the most coveted free agents on the open market. Phil Jackson likes him, but with Kobe, Bynum and Pau Gasol on the roster, the Lakers don’t need him and might explore trades for him in the coming months. Odom’s penchant for disappearing in big moments (see: 2008 NBA Finals) hasn’t helped his rep in L.A. But he is a great team guy, he can rebound the ball, he can initiate the offense and he doesn’t need the ball to be effective. If he doesn’t stick in L.A., there will be a line of teams waiting to snatch him up.”

Sure, this article is from September and there have been several more ESPN articles about the free agent class of 2009 since that date, it is interesting to ponder the possibilities. Now with Andrew Bynum theoretically out for the rest of the regular season, it seems like the Lakers will probably hold on to Odom for at least the rest of this year, yet Bynum is a big reason why he might not be back next year. In this past off-season, Andrew Bynum signed a massive contract extension with the team that just comes into effect next season. This means that while the Lakers do indeed have over $17 million in expiring contracts, they will still be well over the expected salary cap of about $61 million. Thus the only logical way for the Lakers to re-sign Odom, even though he is their own free agent, is to give him their mid-level-exception, something I would expect Odom to pass down.

Now on to the exact reasons why this article caught my eye, and why, especially after Sunday’s performance, I believe Lamar Odom could still be an All-Star in the NBA. As evidenced on Sunday, Lamar Odom is one of the best scoring threats next to the basket in the NBA. Below this article, I point out how LeBron James shot about 65% from the basket from 2004-2008, and Lamar Odom was pretty close to him last season shooting about 62.2% at that spot on the court. This year his paint numbers down a little bit because of the health of Andrew Bynum (up until recently that is). In addition, in Odom’s career he has never averaged less than 8.46 rebounds and 17.57 points per 48 minutes. In the past five years in Los Angeles, he has averaged about 18.54 points, 5.39 assists, 12.31 rebounds and an efficiency shooting percentage of 1.039 despite never being the premier scoring option on the court behind Bryant, Gasol and recently Bynum.

Continue reading

February 10, 2009 Posted by | Dayton Flyers, The Boots | , , , , , , , | 2 Comments

NBA Version of The Boots

Boot Up: Cleveland Cavaliers – Since it is already mid-December, it clearly means that I have not been dreaming for the last month and a half of the NBA season.  Yes, the Cleveland Cavaliers are currently 20-3 and are a half-game back of the Boston Celtics for the best record in the Eastern Conference , and are a half game ahead of the LA Lakers in the West. The Cavaliers have made the the NBA a clear race between the top three in 2009, and are currently riding a franchise best eleven-game winning streak. This winning streak has already made history in several different ways (blowouts, Z and LeBron) and there are only four more months left in the regular season for the Cavaliers as they look to set all-time franchise records in wins and points (currently fourth in points scored and first in defense and “DIFF” per game according to ESPN).

I read a fantastic article recently by Dave Berri about the reason for the Cavaliers success recently. He pointed out that it is not really the acquisition of Maurice Williams, or the more inspired play of LeBron James that is leading to such blow-out victories. He argues that it is the more efficient rotation and healthy bench, resulting in more minutes for productive players like Anderson Varejao and Delonte West. He notes that using the rotation we have used thus far this season, and the production that is established for all of our personnel, we could have easily expected about 62 wins from this team in 2008-2009. 62 WINS! Who would have guessed earlier this year that this team ever would have been capable of winning this many games??? Not anyone, or at least certainly not anyone from pessimistic ol’ Northeast Ohio.

I had the Cavaliers down for about 48 wins in my mid-summer NBA predictions and they have exceeded all of my wildest expectations through 23 games this season. I can only hope and pray, as someone born and raised in the Northeast Ohio area, that this team does not let us down from here. Right now, the team must make the Eastern Conference finals this season or possibly face dire consequences from LeBron himself in the summer of 2010. From there, the Cavaliers desperately need to compete with the Boston Celtics like they did in the Eastern Conference Quarterfinals last season. Last year, however, I never truly imagined the Cavs could possibly beat the Celtics in that series, while in a similar matchup this season who knows who will have the edge. I just hope that April comes soon, and that in those first few days of the playoffs I still feel optimistic about the great potential for this team.

Continue reading

December 12, 2008 Posted by | The Boots | , , , | 1 Comment

The Boots (November 4, 2008)

Boot Up: Cavaliers + Hornets – The Cavaliers lost in New Orleans the other night as Chris Paul had yet another amazing night, but you will be hearing about these two teams well into the NBA Playoffs this season. Simply because LeBron had an off shooting night on the road against one of the top teams in the Western Conference, does not mean that Cleveland will trail behind Boston, Detroit, or Orlando again this season. This was not supposed to be a very easy game for the Cavaliers, and I expect within the team’s record to start to bounce back within the next week or so. The Hornets on the other hand, should continue to be a force in the Western Conference with stud-muffin Chris Paul and free agent pick up James Posey. In the next Boot Down about the most recent big trade in the NBA, I will analyze the rankings of the Eastern Conference, and here is my analysis about the West:

Western Conference Preview:

The LA Lakers are the top team in the NBA without a doubt. A healthy Andrew Bynum playing alongside Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom, and Kobe Bryant means that the Lakers have the best starting lineup in the entire league. As is well documented on The Wages of Wins blog, it seems like that Lakers will be the top team in the league for quite some time as well. Continue reading

November 4, 2008 Posted by | Politics, The Boots | , , , , , , , | Leave a comment

The Boots (July 16, 2008)

Boot Up: Oklahoma Outlaws – The Seattle Supersonics are officially moving to Oklahoma City. The newest team in the NBA has a very complicated history, as special clauses in the arrangement between Seattle, and Oklahoma City allow this new team to share the history of the old Sonics. Either way you slice it there is no doubt in my mind that the team name should be the Oklahoma Outlaws. Including the term “City” is very old-fashioned, and if you look at all of the major sports, only Kansas City does such a thing. The team nickname Outlaws is catchy, somewhat modern, original, and is more related to the history of the state than many current team nicknames such as the Utah Jazz, and LA Lakers. The entire process was extremely complicated in moving the Sonics away from their home, and I do not expect this team to compete for a very long time, but it definitely should be interesting to see when the new logos comes out.

Continue reading

July 16, 2008 Posted by | The Boots | , , , , , , | 1 Comment

2008 NBA Draft Recap and Early Projections: Part Four

Western Conference – Southwest Division

New Orleans (56-26, #2 in conference and lost in seven games in the Conference Semifinals)
Cash considerations from Portland

Traded away the #27 selection in the draft, Darrell Arthur out of Kansas, to Portland for cash considerations.

Star contributors on the team in 2008-2009 are projected to be PG Chris Paul, SG Morris Peterson, SF Peja Stojakovic, PF David West, C Tyson Chandler, PG Mike James, SF Julian Wright, and SF Rasual Butler. Key unrestricted free agents include F/C Chris Anderson, PF Ryan Bowen, PG Jannero Pargo, and SF Bonzi Wells.

Report Card: Chris Paul is a great point guard, and they have one of the best starting lineups in the NBA with Peja, West, and Chandler. The only thing that worries me is that 2007-2008 seems like the ceiling for this group of guys, and Peja is not getting any younger. If they are to ever win an NBA championship, they will need Jannero Pargo to re-sign, and hope for continued improvement from Julian Wright. Their bunch is very weak, and an injury could push them back a slot or two in the conference in no time at all. For now, the median range for them is probably the #4 seed. Projection: #2 in Southwest Division, #4 in West, between 52-56 wins.

Continue reading

July 10, 2008 Posted by | NBA Draft | , , | 5 Comments

2008 NBA Draft Recap and Early Projections: Part Three

Western Conference – Northwest Division

Utah (54-28, #4 in conference and lost in six games in the Conference Semifinals)
The #23 selection in the draft (Kosta Koufos out of Ohio State)
The #44 selection in the draft (Ante Tomic out of Croatia)
The #53 selection in the draft (Tadija Dragicevic out of Serbia)

Star contributors on the team in 2008-2009 are projected to be PG Deron Williams, SG Ronnie Brewer, SF Andrei Kirilenko, PF Carlos Boozer, C Mehmut Okur, SF Kyle Korver and PF Paul Millsap. SG C.J. Miles is a restricted free agent.

Report Card: Utah is stockpiling on their European big men, as the addition of Koufos (Greek, 7-1), Tomic (7-2), and Dragicevic (6-9) to their already strong core of Kirilenko (6-9), and Okur (6-11) gives them the most international frontcourt in the NBA. Not like that really matters, unless the front office was just hoping, and praying one would turn out to be as successful as Cavaliers center Zydrunas Ilgauskas (chances are unlikely.) Utah had a great year last year as the trade for Korver helped them make an end of season surge to become the #4 seed. Brewer, and Millsap continue to get better, and the duo of Williams, and Boozer is up there for one of the best in the NBA. Projection: #1 in Northwest Division, #3 in West, between 53-57 wins.

Continue reading

July 8, 2008 Posted by | NBA Draft | , , , | Leave a comment